The Big Shrink
For generations, farmers have grown to feed a growing world. What happens when that world begins to shrink?
A series of special reports from Terrain, an exclusive offering of participating Farm Credit associations
How Will Agriculture Navigate the Baby Bust?
The world’s peak population is just a few decades away. And the world population continues to grow older. Read Terrain’s population projections, and start to explore how agriculture can prepare for the new realities for global trade, food demand and labor.
What the next 50 years look like
U.S. Ag Focused on Feeding the World
U.S. agriculture benefits from the value of its exports and the ability to sell its “extra” production in commodities such as soybeans and almonds. However, the population in some key markets such as China, Japan and Europe has already peaked and is in decline.
Why it matters
The generation of farmers who are nearing retirement rode a wave of global population increases, globalization, and exports that ate up increased production. The value of U.S. agricultural exports increased more than 60% from 1990 to 2024, even when adjusting for inflation. The next generation of farmers will face a different reality.
Global Population Continues to Grow
By 2030, the global population will continue to grow, but not all countries will see an increase. For example, more than 60% of our soybean exports currently go to countries that will reach peak population by 2035, using the U.N.’s low variant estimate.
Why it matters
Export demand for U.S. agricultural products will likely remain strong, but population shifts will force U.S. exporters to find new markets and products.
Asia Reaches Peak Population
Terrain projects Asia will reach peak population between 2045 and 2050, just 20 to 25 years away.
Why it matters
From 1990 to 2024, the population of Asia increased nearly 50% and U.S. ag exports to Asian countries increased 55% in inflation-adjusted dollars. The current value of the U.S.’s agricultural exports to the continent is a staggering $67.7 billion, according to the USDA.
Peak Population Hits Home
While the world population continues to grow, Terrain expects North America and Latin America to both reach peak population between 2050 and 2060. Central America, a major source of immigrant labor, will likely also experience its peak population in this decade.
Why it matters
Labor is already a challenge for the U.S. farmer. Automation will likely be forced out of necessity.
Global Population Reaches Peak
Terrain projects the global population will peak at 9.38 billion people between 2065 and 2070.
Why it matters
The population wave that allowed U.S. agricultural production to find a home somewhere in the world may come to an end. The next generation of farmers will need different demand drivers.
Global Population Is in Decline
By 2070, Africa and Oceania are the only major land areas experiencing population growth.
Why it matters
Not only is the global population in decline, but the average consumer is now much older, consuming less food per person and wanting different types of products.
How Will Agriculture Navigate the Baby Bust?
The world’s peak population is just a few decades away. And the world population continues to grow older. Read Terrain’s population projections, and start to explore how agriculture can prepare for the new realities for global trade, food demand and labor.
Best Trade Friends Forever?: Part 1
For the last 30 years, U.S. agriculture has been successful at developing export markets to find a home for its growing productivity. Market development has looked different among corn, sorghum, soybeans and wheat, and the risk profile of each commodity’s export portfolio varies. With the changing dynamics for the global population over the next 30 years, what might growth look like for these major grain and oilseed crops?
Best Trade Friends Forever?: Part 2
The next step of “Best Trade Friends Forever?” will provide considerations for a path forward as the impact of global population decline begins to really bite for U.S. corn, sorghum, soybeans and wheat. Key topics include the role of high-value products and biofuels; a road map for expanding export markets; and considerations for farm revenue.
Where Can Tree Nut Demand Grow?
The Future of Ag Demand: Quality vs. Quantity
More Reports to Come!
A series of special reports from Terrain, an exclusive offering of American AgCredit®, Farm Credit Services of America® and Frontier Farm Credit®.